System imbalance forecasts
Elia publishes near real-time forecasts of the average quarter-hourly system imbalance in the ongoing quarter hour and the next quarter hour.
This page provides information on the publication of Elia’s forecasts of the system imbalance. Specifically, Elia publishes:
- A forecast of the average quarter-hourly system imbalance in the ongoing quarter hour
- A forecast of the average quarter-hourly system imbalance in the next quarter hour
In addition to the publication of these forecasts of the system imbalance (in MW), Elia publishes for different intervals an estimation of the probability that the average quarter-hourly system imbalance will lie within this interval in the ongoing and next quarter hour.
Publication on OpenDataElia
The actual forecasts of the system imbalance are published on the OpenDataElia platform and not on this page. Specifically, the OpenDataElia platform contains the following 2 datasets on the system imbalance forecasts:
- System imbalance forecasts for the current (ongoing) quarter hour
- System imbalance forecasts for the next quarter hour
Each of these datasets contains both the forecast of the average quarter-hourly system imbalance (in MW) and the estimated probability that the average quarter-hourly system imbalance lies in each of the considered intervals. The published forecasts of the system imbalance are updated every minute using as much as possible the latest available information.
Methodology for system imbalance forecasts
The system imbalance forecasts are made using machine-learning algorithms. These machine learning models are first trained on historical data. The trained model is subsequently deployed to forecast the system imbalance near real-time. More information on the machine-learning methodologies and data used to forecast the system imbalance are provided in the documentation available.
Disclaimer
The published data reflects Elia's own forecasts of the system imbalance. It must be noted that these forecasts can have a significant error margin, are not binding for Elia and are therefore merely shared for informational purposes and that under no circumstances the publication or the use of this information imply a shift in responsibility or liability towards Elia.
