Adequacy study for Belgium: the need for strategic reserve for winter 2020-21

The report provides a probabilistic assessment of Belgium's security of supply for next winter (2020-21) under consulted hypotheses as required by the Electricity Act. The report also gives a preliminary outlook on the need for a strategic reserve for subsequent winters in 2021-22 and 2022-23. In addition to the 'base case' scenario, Elia performed a sensitivity analysis, incorporating high impact events (with a low probability) on the availability of nuclear generation in Belgium & France and evaluated the corresponding need for a strategic reserve.

As previous years, Elia makes its recommendation based on this sensitivity. The European Commission's DG Energy approved such an approach within the context of the state aid review of the strategic reserve mechanism. As this scenario leads to a margin of 100 MW for Belgium for next winter (2020-21), it does not induce a need for constituting a strategic reserve for that winter.

This reduced margin, compared to last year's outlook for winter 2020-21, reflects the impact of the accelerated decommissioning of conventional generation in neighboring countries. As next step, the Federal Energy Administration will provide its advice to the Minister by December 15th. Consequently, the Federal Minister for Energy will decide by 15 January 2020 upon the need of a strategic reserve.